Which road will the 2024 election take

The latest national poll from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research USA reveals a neck-and-neck race between U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former U.S. President Donald Trump, with Harris holding a slim 49% to 47% lead among likely voters. Also, more voters (46%) believe Harris best understands the challenges facing average Americans, compared to 44% for Trump.

The House race reflects a similar divide, with 46% of voters preferring Democratic candidates and 46% supporting Republicans among likely voters. Among men, Republicans lead with 48% to 45%, while Democrats lead with women 47% to 44%.

“This race continues to be highly competitive,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab. “Turnout or a late movement of voters could be the difference.”

Additional findings of the national poll:

• 31% of voters feel Elon Musk's social media posts are focused on improving society, while 50% believe they are more about Musk himself.
• When it comes to voting methods, Democrats lean toward mail-in ballots (40%), while Republicans prefer voting in person on Election Day (39%).
• Satisfaction with U.S. democracy remains divided along party lines. Among Democrats, 54% are very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the state of democracy and 47% of Republicans are feeling unsatisfied.
• 65% of voters say they are very or somewhat happy with their current life situation.

Florida voters weigh in to the presidential race, amendments and voting preferences

• In Florida, for the presidential race, Trump leads Harris 53% to 44% among likely voters. In the U.S. senate race, Republican Rick Scott leads Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell with 50% of voter support to Mucarsel-Powell’s 46%, and 3% of voters undecided.
• Amendment 3, which proposes legalizing marijuana for adults 21 and older, has substantial support with 60% of voters in favor, 34% opposed and 6% undecided. On voting day, there needs to be 60% support to pass.
• Amendment 4, which seeks to secure abortion rights up to fetal viability or when necessary for the patient’s health, also shows significant support at 58% with 32% opposed and 10% undecided.
• Florida voters show a strong preference for early in-person voting, with 51% choosing this option, compared to just 21% opting for mail-in ballots, and only 18% planning to vote on Election Day.

Methodology

This report includes analyses from two surveys conducted in October, each focused on registered voters age 18 or older. The first survey was carried out nationally from Oct. 20 to Oct. 27 among 937 voters in the U.S., while the second conducted from Oct. 19 to Oct. 27 involved 913 voters residing in Florida. Both surveys were administered through text messaging and an online panel, allowing participants to respond in either English or Spanish. Intended to represent their respective voting populations, both surveys applied weights for gender, race, education and past voting behavior, with party ID determined by respondents' affiliation. Likelihood to vote was assessed, and only those most likely to vote were added to the “likely voter” screen. Although neither survey could assign a precise margin of error due to the online component, each sample would typically have a margin of error of ±3.2% at the 95% confidence level, with higher margins for subsamples. For full methodologies, visit faupolling.com/about. The full report with crosstabs is available upon request. A dashboard to track election polling is available here.

-FAU-